Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 84896.787098 89576.646862 94252.211914 99270.679294 104501.332024 109789.053390 115535.091717
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 77899.854710 85122.531835 92536.922634 100706.557254 109445.084049 118501.305225 128585.547607
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 71735.034019 80615.450335 89930.473236 100408.349028 111843.973659 123924.139044 137627.731629
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 68235.846105 78482.760166 89423.770147 101939.437222 115823.312441 130716.033698 147861.212667
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 65033.560694 76347.685262 88618.316341 102862.503229 118888.109785 136305.891523 156612.115516
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 61776.423369 73901.590223 87241.059560 102933.872518 120815.234264 140480.662146 163666.042411
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 58788.106753 71568.680700 85816.612104 102785.260775 122346.735101 144092.117773 169991.515163
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 57332.279189 70890.834646 86184.406585 104596.423059 126039.274113 150100.098659 179010.821661
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 56016.202823 70283.604307 86554.525972 106341.588796 129604.650814 155934.230917 187828.174179
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 54292.052249 69100.620046 86170.477792 107132.948522 132003.672651 160387.255912 195036.665843
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 52206.153034 67391.475104 85081.408425 107014.664741 133270.012187 163476.481005 200629.029095
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 50633.246975 66234.309815 84589.141339 107551.095687 135266.010928 167390.312525 207175.783228
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 48832.631905 64760.940979 83692.676211 107594.444541 136688.288753 170667.640538 213046.496697
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 47808.757524 64211.249042 83890.374573 108945.461998 139679.163317 175822.245673 221186.994681
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 45997.501292 62608.878902 82736.180503 108588.312740 140555.541696 178419.594697 226257.990902
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 45263.750502 62336.602412 83202.526252 110209.775785 143839.276015 183920.062105 234847.352849
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 44274.378063 61697.096528 83175.947301 111190.469784 146317.506492 188441.605650 242266.620757
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 42922.219189 60541.886482 82457.368031 111266.012935 147645.096705 191543.803535 247955.827195
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 41536.904686 59297.682973 81584.114798 111107.728671 148649.923288 194230.328975 253129.626097
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 41149.351879 59348.634327 82356.470825 113035.421152 152275.880514 200163.596179 262332.807101
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 40755.085887 59371.565820 83079.070512 114892.500400 155815.935502 206006.451932 271458.398150
2025-05-04 00:00:00+00:00 39950.785227 58817.371950 83028.331912 115734.486617 158056.863786 210232.799066 278592.208943
2025-05-11 00:00:00+00:00 38781.242064 57734.550674 82253.838115 115608.640187 159039.089681 212871.042135 283743.228532